Choices against points difference for each of the top 25 games
The college football expert picks against the spread of each week 12 match featuring a top 25 team where we also bet on totals and check the season tally.
It’s the home extension for the 2021 season with only two weeks left, meaning it’s also the home extension of choice for the college football expert against the difference. Between Week 12 that we’re about to tackle and the always important rivalry week, we have a big slate on our hands to try to improve or maintain a decent overall record.
Depending on the rest of the season, things were turned upside down last Saturday. We went 10-7-3 against the spread, and moved up to 94-110-4 in that division. But our aggregates dried up nicely with a dismal 6-14 in that area, though our all-season effort still rallied 111-93-4. Finally, we sit at 205-203-8 per season.
There are only two more weeks left in the regular season, which means we have to finish the game strong – starting in Week 12 with our college football experts’ latest picks and bets for each of the top 25 games.
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College football expert picks vs week 12 spread from top 25 matches
Tennessee in 25 Mississippi (-44.0) – less than 56.0
One of several in the Top 25 games against lower-ranked opponents where they are spread out wildly, Mississippi State and Mike Leach’s offense should be able to move the ball nearly as much as you like and then hit the cruise control to make that cover relatively easy.
Memphis at 24 Houston (-9.5) – Over 59.0 (played Friday night)
Even if I didn’t trust Houston that much, I trusted Memphis a little less and it eventually paid off. My lack of confidence in the Tigers was supposed to lead to overall play, because their 13 points really eliminated any chance of excessive hits in this game.
3 Oregon (+3.0) in 23 Utah – over 58.5
If there’s one thing we know about Oregon, it’s that the ducks have been in the big games under Mario Cristobal. This was kind of an MO up to this point. I think we see more of that on Saturday because they are driven by being underdogs and making a statement that totally wins.
UAB at 22 UTSA (-4.0) – over 53.5
Although it didn’t necessarily work out, I continue to use my blind bets on Roadrunners, especially if they play at home. UAB has been a good team but it seems that constant disrespect continues for the undefeated UTSA team.
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21 Arkansas (+20.5) in 2 Alabama – less than 58.5
Barry Odom has shown Alabama that he can get them some trouble and this Crimson Tide team is less prolific than we’ve seen in recent years, even if they’re still great. I think Arkansas is losing for sure but they kept it close for 60 minutes.
Syracuse in 20 NC states (-11.5) – over 49.5
As this line is set to both the spread and the total it scares me a lot. Regardless, my hunch says NC State rolls and outruns hits, but judging by the numbers, that’s probably a long way off from me if I’m in the sports book window.
19 San Diego State at UNLV (+11) – Under 41.0 (played Friday night)
San Diego State hasn’t proven it should be a double-digit favorite against anyone, so getting points with UNLV was smart play because of that. I’m still not sure how the Aztec game came to the end.
Virginia at 18 Pittsburgh (-15.0) – less than 66.5
Brennan Armstrong is clearly not right – if he plays – with Virginia and the Cavaliers are not the same team remotely without him. Pete should win this game pretty easily, but then again, the Panthers tend to make this exact type of game more intimidating than it should be.
Illinois (+12.5) in 17 Iowa – over 38.5
Iowa could play in a high school from down the street and I would probably get points if they were double digits. The Hawkeyes weren’t designed to win this way, especially against an Illinois team that, if nothing else, could run the ball well.
Prairie View A&M at 16 Texas A&M (-41.0) – over 51.0
Who knows how to pick games like this, but after last week I gave the Aggies to hit more of their own because Jimbo Fisher wants a statement to bounce back — even against a much smaller team — to get the end of the season back on track.
Nebraska (+10.0) in 15 Wisconsin – less than 43.5
Despite how the Wisconsin attack has been going on lately, the fact of the matter is that the Badgers have played poor defenses. That’s not what it is in Nebraska and I see these two teams playing it in a game with very, very few points, which makes the 10 points difference for me.
14 BYU (-20.0) in Georgia Southern – over 57.5
It feels like years since we’ve seen BYU but this team has a foul to get rid of anyone, especially the Georgia Southern team that doesn’t inspire much confidence. This should be a welcome party for the return of the Cougars, even if the long road game scares me a little.
Iowa at 13 Oklahoma (-3.5) – less than 59.0
The Oklahoma support wasn’t very good for me last week but we’ll be back to the well. In simpler terms, they should defeat Iowa. The question at this point is whether or not the urgent are able to do what they ought to do. With the wiindy game, though, the under game is a favourite.
Vanderbilt (+36.0) at 12 Ole Miss – under 65.5
The Ole Miss can easily self-inflict and cover up – but I don’t think that’s what they want to do. I see the Rebels look to the Egg Bowl, get a quick lead, then pack it out for Week 12 with any sort of W and then move on.
11 Baylor (+1.5) in Kansas – under 49.5
While Kansas State is a good team and Manhattan can be a tough, tough place to play, that streak seems wrong to me. Baylor has proven throughout the year that he can beat anyone, and while a hangover can happen, bears are still your best bet here.
10 Wake Forest (+4.0) in Clemson – less than 57.0
Understanding that Clemson has been looking a little better lately, Wake Forest looked like the better team in this game of the year. Although it’s risky with the Deacs on the road, my hope is that they’ll have enough humiliation that the Tigers can’t match.
9 Oklahoma (-10.0) at Texas Tech – under 56.0
Yes, Lubbock is a place where strange things can happen and Iowa lost to the Red Raiders last week. On the other hand, Oklahoma State plays some of the best defense in the country. I bet they come out and take control that way, dealing with enough attack to get cover and hold with ease.
Georgia Tech at 8 Notre Dame (-17.5) – under 58.0
With quarterback issues hurting Georgia Tech crime at the moment and Notre Dame looking like the best version of this team, there wasn’t much thought here. The Irish should comfortably win, but I don’t expect the Yellow Vests to manage anything on attack.
7 Michigan (+19.0) in 4 Ohio – over 69.5
My hope is that Ohio State will win this game. However, the Buckeyes have failed to cover before the game quite often in recent years. Against a high-quality Spartans attack and defense that can stress into the red zone, give me Michigan State to cover.
6 Michigan (-15.0) in Maryland – over 57.5
Yes, this is where the Wolverines are overlooking as Ohio looms, but Michigan has been consistently winning games that are meant to be under Jim Harbaugh, and on top of that, this might be his best team to date. Terps will make a little noise, but not as much as UM.
SMU (+10.0) in 5 Cincinnati – over 65.5
There’s a legitimate chance that SMU could give Cincinnati their first loss of the season, so the 10 points difference is pretty high in my mind. And if we went that way, I was expecting a lot of points, hence the tendency to finish.
Charleston South at 1 Georgia (-50.5) – over 58.5
It’s a lot of points and you can make an argument, as you can for other teams, that Georgia is raking it up. However, with a couple of relatively easy games ahead of the SEC Championship, I think Kirby Smart is trying to avoid going into a lull and not shooting gas.
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